Runcorn and Helsby by-election defeat: Results breakdown, analysis and reaction

Labour’s Karen Shore has lost the Runcorn and Helsby by-election, after battling out a knife-edge fight with Reform that went to a recount in one of the closest parliamentary by-elections in history – with just six votes in it.

The scale of the swing to Reform, not only matching but exceeding its national poll ratings, will spark fresh angst over the insurgent party’s progress, and it came just after the party came a close second to Labour in three mayoralties in North Tyneside, West of England and Doncaster.

A party spokesperson said by-elections were “always difficult” for the government, and highlighted the events which led to it being triggered as well as voter frustration “with the state of the coutry after 14 years of failure”. They also highlighted a collapse in the Tory vote.

READ MORE: Council by council Labour gains and losses – and its position in each mayor race

A Labour spokesperson said: “By-elections are always difficult for the party in government and the events which led to this one being called made it even harder. Voters are still rightly furious with the state of the country after 14 years of failure and clearly expect the Government to move faster with the Plan for Change.

“While Labour has suffered an extremely narrow defeat, the shock is that the Conservative vote has collapsed. Moderate voters are clearly appalled by the talk of a Tory-Reform pact.

Pollster Luke Tryl of More in Common said a key question for this set of local election results had been whether Reform could convert poll ratings into actual votes and strong turnout on the day. “Clearly they’ve done that in Runcorn – their performance in the by-election far exceeds swing you might you expect based on current polls,” he said.

Labour’s Karen Shore faced stiff competition from Reform UK candidate Sarah Pochin in the first by-election since Keir Starmer entered Number 10, with polls and bookmakers suggesting Reform UK were the favourites to win in the run-up to polling day.

A local councillor and former teacher, Shore looked devastated by the result, walking straight out of the building and ignoring questions from the press. She had secured 12,639 votes, with Reform ahead on 12,645. The Conservative had 2,341, the Liberal Democrats 942, and Greens 2,314.

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“There are encouraging signs that our Plan for Change is working – NHS waiting lists, inflation and interest rates down with wages up – but we will go further and faster to deliver change with relentless focus on putting money back into people’s pockets.”

Voter turnout is typically low in by-elections, but Runcorn and Helsby was relatively high at 46.33%. This is on a par with the 2023 Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election which had a turnout of 46.1%.

The by-election in one of Labour’s nominally safest constituencies was triggered by the resignation of Mike Amesbury after he pleaded guilty to assault.

Sasha das Gupta, the Labour left campaign group Momentum co-chair, claimed that Labour risked “handing the country to the likes of Nigel Farage”. She accused Labour of “continuing austerity, pandering to the far right and failing to offer real change”.

More from inside the campaign in the lead-up to the Runcorn result:

• Mood on the doorstep: Labour’s last push for Tory voters to keep out Reform
• At least 150 Labour MPs visit – but Keir Starmer ain’t one
• Karen Shore interview: Labour candidate on Reform, the NHS and closing asylum hotels
• Runcorn poll: One in ten Labour voters expected to back Reform

It comes after the first drip of council results early on Friday looked alarming for both the Conservatives and Labour, with Labour losing 12 seats in Northumberland. The announcement of a recount in Runcorn and Helsby at around 4am appeared to mark another early setback, pointing to a knife-edge result in what should be one of the party’s safest seats.

But the first three major sets of results fully declared all saw Labour edge tight victories to hold on, with Reform finishing second in all three – the North Tyneside, West of England and then Doncaster mayoralties.

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In Doncaster, Labour’s Ros Jones was re-elected for a fourth time, but only by around 700 votes to Reform.

In North Tyneside, Karen Clark held it for Labour but with only 32.4% of the vote to Reform’s  29.4%. Labour’s vote tally more than halved, however, from 33,119 for Clark’s outgoing predecessor in 2021 to just 16,230 this time round.

In the West of England, Labour’s Helen Godwin secured a majority of less than 6,000 votes over Arron Banks, with 25% of the vote to Reform’s 22.1%, It marked an unusual four-way contest, with the Greens third on 20% and Tories on 16.6%.

Read more on the 2025 local elections:

Results on the day

Analysis and what to expect

• Runcorn blame game begins – why did Labour lose?
• ‘Labour has lost in Runcorn – here are the eight things the party should do now‘
• MPs who could lose their seat on Runcorn by-election swing to Reform
• ‘Results so far say one thing: voters think change isn’t coming fast enough’
• Three ways to measure Labour’s success tonight
• Expert predicts ‘bad night’ with no net Labour gains
• ‘Uxbridgitis: If election results are grim, let’s not learn the wrong lessons again’
• Where’s Keir? PM barely features in Labour party election broadcasts for the locals
• The meme elections: Labour’s social media pivot to take fight to Farage

LabourList’s on-the-ground reports from the campaign

• Hull and East Yorkshire: Labour candidate spars with Reform’s boxing star in UK’s most disillusioned city
• Cambridgeshire & Peterborough Nik Johnson on why he’s standing down and Anna Smith on knife-edge Labour-Tory fight to replace him
• West of England: Tory and Green threats, Dan Norris and low voter awareness
• Lancashire: Long shadow of Gaza looms over key battleground

Inside the Runcorn campaign

• Mood on the doorstep: Labour’s last push for Tory voters to keep out Reform
• At least 150 Labour MPs visit – but Keir Starmer ain’t one
• Karen Shore interview: Labour candidate on Reform, the NHS and closing asylum hotels
• Runcorn poll: One in ten Labour voters expected to back Reform

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