‘Results so far say one thing: voters think change isn’t coming fast enough’

It has been a grim night for Labour, and the shocking results for Reform UK will spark a huge debate. The swirl of debate in Westminster, day by day week by week, pulls in a myriad of topics – from freebies to steel, from school curriculums to trade deals. But to adapt an old adage, when it comes to elections, it’s the cost of living crisis, stupid.

A new poll for 38 Degrees by the research firm JL Partners asked people voting this week about the biggest factor driving their decision at the ballot box. By a very significant distance it’s the cost of living that voters say is make or break for them.

JL Partners asked, “Out of the following options, what are the most important issues that will decide your vote in these elections?” 59%  of people who cast their vote in the elections held yesterday rated the cost of living as one of their top three priorities. That’s almost double the 32% who cited immigration in their top three. The NHS was the second most cited, with 42% of voters including it in their top three.

READ MORE: Council by council Labour gains and losses – and its position in each mayor race

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The harsh reality is that some of the government decisions with the biggest breakthrough with voters are policies which actively hurt people in the pocket. Taking away the winter fuel allowance from all but the very poorest pensioners hurt. The cuts to benefits paid to disabled people are going to hurt. Hiking the bus fare cap by 50% hurt. These are policies that people know about, even when they’re policies that haven’t personally affected them.

And even where the government has pushed through good things that have the potential to help people’s material circumstances, the lack of fight for those issues means that cut through hasn’t been there. A massive increase to the national minimum wage (especially for young workers), creating new jobs in the energy sector, introducing new rights to make people work more secure – these are all hugely popular when polled. But without a broader story, without fighting to promote these gains, and fightback against the special interests trying to tear those policies down, voters aren’t noticing.

READ MORE: Runcorn and Helsby by-election blame game begins – why did Labour lose?

These results are grim for the government. Losing in Lincolnshire is one thing, but to lose the Runcorn by-election is sure to set alarm bells ringing. In a time of great political volatility, the focus has been on the rise of Reform UK. These results show that Labour should be at least as concerned by the strength of the Lib Dems and Greens. And they should also be open to the idea that the present churn of voter loyalties gives Labour itself opportunities to gain ground, if it can show it is actually able to deliver the change people desperately want.

Last year’s general election opened up a chance for change, but the election of a new government was not change in itself. When it comes to the cost of living pain people have experienced – voters number one concern, by far – change isn’t coming fast enough.

Read more on the 2025 local elections:

Results on the day

Analysis and what to expect

• Runcorn blame game begins – why did Labour lose?
• ‘Labour has lost in Runcorn – here are the eight things the party should do now‘
• MPs who could lose their seat on Runcorn by-election swing to Reform
• ‘Results so far say one thing: voters think change isn’t coming fast enough’
• Three ways to measure Labour’s success tonight
• Expert predicts ‘bad night’ with no net Labour gains
• ‘Uxbridgitis: If election results are grim, let’s not learn the wrong lessons again’
• Where’s Keir? PM barely features in Labour party election broadcasts for the locals
• The meme elections: Labour’s social media pivot to take fight to Farage

LabourList’s on-the-ground reports from the campaign

• Hull and East Yorkshire: Labour candidate spars with Reform’s boxing star in UK’s most disillusioned city
• Cambridgeshire & Peterborough Nik Johnson on why he’s standing down and Anna Smith on knife-edge Labour-Tory fight to replace him
• West of England: Tory and Green threats, Dan Norris and low voter awareness
• Lancashire: Long shadow of Gaza looms over key battleground

Inside the Runcorn campaign

• Mood on the doorstep: Labour’s last push for Tory voters to keep out Reform
• At least 150 Labour MPs visit – but Keir Starmer ain’t one
• Karen Shore interview: Labour candidate on Reform, the NHS and closing asylum hotels
• Runcorn poll: One in ten Labour voters expected to back Reform

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