Runcorn and Helsby: MPs who could lose their seat on Reform by-election swing

More than 250 Labour MPs, including the Chancellor Rachel Reeves, would lose their seat if the swing at the Runcorn and Helsby by-election was reflected at a general election.

Labour’s Karen Shore lost the by-election in the Cheshire constituency to Reform UK by just six votes, with a swing against the party of 17.4 percent.

The Election Polling website suggests that should such a swing be reflected at a general election, 254 Labour MPs would be ousted, including ten members of the cabinet.

READ MORE: Council by council Labour gains and losses – and its position in each mayor race

This would include Chancellor Rachel Reeves, Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper and Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall.

Culture Secretary and former leadership contender Lisa Nandy, Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds and Welsh Secretary Jo Stevens would also be among those to lose their seats based on such a swing.

However, the dynamics of a by-election and a general election campaign are very different, and many would caution against predicting confidently that such a result is actually likely to be reflected when the country next goes to the polls.

Voters are generally seen as far more likely to use by-elections as a protest vote, and opposition parties are able to throw far more resources at them when there are fewer seats up for grabs.

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READ MORE: ‘Results so far say one thing: voters think change isn’t coming fast enough’

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The first drip of council results early on Friday also looked alarming for both the Conservatives and Labour, with the Tories down 50 seats and Labour down 13 as of 7am.

Labour lost a dozen seats in Northumberland, where it was the largest party in the 2000s, finishing a distant third behind Reform and the Tories, who narrowly remain the biggest party.

But the first three major sets of results fully declared all saw Labour edge tight victories to hold on, with Reform finishing second in three mayoralties – North Tyneside, West of England and then Doncaster.

READ MORE: ‘If election results are grim, let’s not learn the wrong lessons again’

In Doncaster, Labour’s Ros Jones was re-elected for a fourth time, but only by around 700 votes to Reform.

In North Tyneside, Karen Clark held it for Labour but with only 32.4% of the vote to Reform’s  29.4%. Labour’s vote tally more than halved, however, from 33,119 for Clark’s outgoing predecessor in 2021 to just 16,230 this time round.

In the West of England, Labour’s Helen Godwin secured a majority of less than 6,000 votes over Arron Banks, with 25% of the vote to Reform’s 22.1%, It marked an unusual four-way contest, with the Greens third on 20% and Tories on 16.6%.

Read more on the 2025 local elections:

Results on the day

Analysis and what to expect

• Runcorn blame game begins – why did Labour lose?
• ‘Labour has lost in Runcorn – here are the eight things the party should do now‘
• MPs who could lose their seat on Runcorn by-election swing to Reform
• ‘Results so far say one thing: voters think change isn’t coming fast enough’
• Three ways to measure Labour’s success tonight
• Expert predicts ‘bad night’ with no net Labour gains
• ‘Uxbridgitis: If election results are grim, let’s not learn the wrong lessons again’
• Where’s Keir? PM barely features in Labour party election broadcasts for the locals
• The meme elections: Labour’s social media pivot to take fight to Farage

LabourList’s on-the-ground reports from the campaign

• Hull and East Yorkshire: Labour candidate spars with Reform’s boxing star in UK’s most disillusioned city
• Cambridgeshire & Peterborough Nik Johnson on why he’s standing down and Anna Smith on knife-edge Labour-Tory fight to replace him
• West of England: Tory and Green threats, Dan Norris and low voter awareness
• Lancashire: Long shadow of Gaza looms over key battleground

Inside the Runcorn campaign

• Mood on the doorstep: Labour’s last push for Tory voters to keep out Reform
• At least 150 Labour MPs visit – but Keir Starmer ain’t one
• Karen Shore interview: Labour candidate on Reform, the NHS and closing asylum hotels
• Runcorn poll: One in ten Labour voters expected to back Reform

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