‘Labour is right to revisit winter fuel. But it needs a wider reset of messaging’

This is not an article about economics – nor is it an article about fiscal policy.

This is an article about the popularity and perception of economic policy choices. This is an article about what normal voters think about the decisions being made in the Treasury and No 10 – and how ministers think these decisions will land out there in the places that Labour needs to win if it’s going to turn around last week’s terrible performance at the polls.

This is, more than anything an article about how the British electorate cannot be expected to respond with unalloyed joy to the prospect of never-ending austerity. They can’t and they won’t.

As an example, there was precisely no chance that cutting the Winter Fuel Allowance was going to somehow be popular (it’s incredible to think that there were those around the Chancellor who actually thought normal voters would be impressed by the decision-making). The doorstep could have told them that – and anyone who runs as many focus groups as I do could have done so too.

We must not confuse 2025 with 2010

As a party of government, we must not confuse 2025 with 2010. The politics of economic rectitude are quite different from when George Osborne relentlessly attacked Gordon and Alistair for “failing to fix the roof while the sun was shining”.

Osborne inherited a growing economy and public services basking in years of investment – and even then, with the promise of a programme of “balancing the books”, he and Cameron only made it into government by the skin of their teeth. Starmer and Reeves are prosecuting a very similar austerity agenda after years of Tory underinvestment. The circumstances are just not the same as in 2010 – classrooms are literally crumbling and the NHS is in, frankly, the worst state it has ever been in.

READ MORE: Council by council Labour gains and losses – and its position in each mayor race

Not only that – in the years since the Coalition government, many voters have not unreasonably concluded that there is a magic money tree, when circumstances demand it. The billions and billions poured into furlough and other covid subsidies completely changed the terms of the debate in this area – and then the support for fuel bills reinforced this impression.

Voters aren’t in the market for a miserly ministry

Labour hoping for electoral joy off the back of conservative fiscal rectitude in the aftermath of those vast Tory spending splurges is on a fool’s errand.

The polls demonstrate this point. Reeves is staggeringly unpopular. Honestly, it is some achievement to be less popular than both her predecessor (Jeremy Hunt) and her opposite number (Mel Stride). It is more than likely that this lack of popular support for the Chancellor’s position played a role in failing to stop the surge in populism during last week’s locals.

I am not saying that Reeves – or whoever is doing the big job next – should tear up the fiscal rule book and risk the wrath of the bond market (a la Truss). And nor am I saying we ought to tax and spend as if John McDonnell was occupying No 11. But I am saying that no one can expect poll ratings to improve while the Chancellor appears to revel in being Scrooge. The voters just aren’t in the market for that kind of miserly ministry.

A secure economy is fine and – as I wrote last month – “security” is a powerful messaging frame for the Starmer government. But ministers must be careful not to confuse a commitment to economic responsibility with the perception that that is all they care about. A sense that the government might also be keen to invest in the crumbling public services that matter to people – hospitals and schools – is just as important.

It would seem that some of this message is beginning to land in government. In the last 24 hours we’ve seen strong hints that No 10 wants to row back on winter fuel and this morning Wes Streeting came out fighting on investment in GP provision.

But this should be just the start. We need some kind of vision for a Levelling Up 2.0 and fast. The Comprehensive Spending Review next month represents an opportunity for a reset. It must be taken. At the moment one could easily get the impression that Reeves and co don’t even want to try to fix Broken Britain.

Read more on the 2025 local elections:

Results on the day

Analysis of the 2025 election results

• Starmer: ‘Labour must go further and faster to deliver after Runcorn defeat’
• Runcorn blame game begins – why did Labour lose?
• ‘Labour has lost in Runcorn – here are the eight things the party should do now‘
• MPs who could lose their seat on Runcorn by-election swing to Reform
• ‘Results so far say one thing: voters think change isn’t coming fast enough’
• Three ways to measure Labour’s success tonight
• ‘Uxbridgitis: If election results are grim, let’s not learn the wrong lessons again’
• Where’s Keir? PM barely features in Labour party election broadcasts for the locals
• The meme elections: Labour’s social media pivot to take fight to Farage

LabourList’s on-the-ground reports from the campaign

• Hull and East Yorkshire: Labour candidate spars with Reform’s boxing star in UK’s most disillusioned city
• Cambridgeshire & Peterborough Nik Johnson on why he’s standing down and Anna Smith on knife-edge Labour-Tory fight to replace him
• West of England: Tory and Green threats, Dan Norris and low voter awareness
• Lancashire: Long shadow of Gaza looms over key battleground

Inside the Runcorn campaign

• Mood on the doorstep: Labour’s last push for Tory voters to keep out Reform
• At least 150 Labour MPs visit – but Keir Starmer ain’t one
• Karen Shore interview: Labour candidate on Reform, the NHS and closing asylum hotels
• Runcorn poll: One in ten Labour voters expected to back Reform

• SHARE: If you have anything to share that we should be looking into or publishing about this story – or any other topic involving Labour– contact us (strictly anonymously if you wish) at [email protected].
• SUBSCRIBE: Sign up to LabourList’s morning email here for the best briefing on everything Labour, every weekday morning.
• DONATE: If you value our work, please chip in a few pounds a week and become one of our supporters, helping sustain and expand our coverage.
• PARTNER: If you or your organisation might be interested in partnering with us on sponsored events or projects, email [email protected].
• ADVERTISE: If your organisation would like to advertise or run sponsored pieces on LabourList‘s daily newsletter or website, contact our exclusive ad partners Total Politics at [email protected].