‘A landslide masks discontent left, right and centre. Labour has its work cut out’

Tonight’s result tells us two things – the electoral volatility of the British electorate over the last decade is in evidence once again, and the electorate has sent the same message it tried to send in 2016 and 2019 that the status quo needs to change.

Labour have made significant, record breaking, gains tonight and Keir Starmer should take significant credit for winning back the confidence of the electorate.

Indeed, a poll by More in Common last week suggested that if this election was a rerun of Johnson vs Corbyn the Conservatives would lead by six points – even after everything that has happened with party-gate, the cost of living and the NHS.  What Starmer’s biggest achievement is likely to have been is making Labour feel a safe choice again. 

But there is a danger that tonight’s result masks a deeper discontent with the whole of the political system, not just a problem with one political party. 

Labour looks set to fall below 35 per cent of the vote nationally, with the vagaries of first past the post meaning Labour can still achieve a Tony Blair-style majority on a much lower vote share.

A clear example of that discontent can be seen among the millions who voted for Reform UK returning 4 MPs to Parliament and who now sit in second place party to Labour in my seats across the county. 

There is no doubt that Nigel Farage’s brand of ‘straight talking’ struck a chord with millions of voters. Time and time again, we would hear from voters what they liked most about Nigel Farage was the fact he ‘says it like it is’ and is himself.

Labour will need to think about how it demonstrates its own brand of authenticity. What is more, with Labour currently projected also to lose seats to Reform, the Party may want to reflect on whether it was a mistake not to take on Reform more directly. It looks increasingly likely that the Reform UK vote will be very similar to UKIP’s in 2015, taking votes from former Labour voters as well as the Tories.

But far more people we spoke to who had no time for Nigel Farage, or Reform UK, and were appalled by his comments on Ukraine and the racism in the Reform UK ranks, also felt the same sense of discontent with the status quo.

In focus group after focus group, they told us they had no faith in politicians nor in any party to sort out the problems the country faces and felt, even if unfair, that most politicians were only in it for themselves.

That discontent is also clear on the left with the shock wins for many independent candidates and defeats for Labour candidates, in many cases off the back of profound feelings of neglect among Britain’s ethnic minority communities.

‘Politics is fragmenting, left right and centre’

In short, British politics is fragmenting left, right and centre.

But what unites people across the country is a view that the country has become too expensive, public services too unreliable and life simply too hard – and while voters from across the board hope Labour will change that, they don’t yet think they will.

It is possible that the closest parallel to this election is the 2017 French election when Emmanuel Macron won a historic centrist majority, but which masked significant disillusionment and frustration, leading to the situation France finds itself in today with a far right victory very possible in Sunday’s elections.

What does all of this mean? And how can the new Government avoid being swept away by the ever greater electoral volatility that has hit the Tories?

First and foremost, Labour will have their work cut out from day one to show a new type of politics, both in tone and delivery. Keir Starmer talks of the politics of service and respect and we know, from our conversations with voters, making that a reality is likely to be precisely the antidote to the cynicism they feel. But tone alone won’t be enough.

Keir Starmer’s new Government will be judged on whether it gets waiting lists down, whether it makes it easier for people to buy a home, or to be able to rely on public transport or just to save up for a summer holiday. The good news is all of the signs are that the new Prime Minister and his team all get this, the challenge now is doing it.

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