In Cambridgeshire, the Liberal Democrats took control by taking not only Tory votes, but Labour ones too. Labour shed three seats to the Liberal Democrats in central Cambridge, and another three to the Greens there too – offset by one gain elsewhere in the county.
The Cambridge constituency was Lib Dem-held until 2015, and this week’s results suggest a growing challenge for Labour to hold the seat come the next general election.
Aid cuts and welfare reform played a big role in voters’ minds
We are a proud Labour affiliate that wants to see our party succeed at every level of government. However with such losses, it is becoming impossible to ignore that major issues like aid cuts and welfare reform played a big role in voters’ minds in some parts of the country, as the election expert Lord Hayward correctly predicted before polling day.
The received wisdom in Westminster that cutting international aid plays well electorally no longer holds currency. These cuts will not only cost the lives of hundreds and thousands of people around the world, but could also cost the political careers of Labour MPs and councillors too – many of whom are friends and allies of the Labour Campaign for International Development.
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As a critical friend that wants to see Labour thrive and deliver for people across the UK and globally, we feel the need to speak up.
It is true that the public are more likely to support than oppose aid cuts in the abstract. But for those Reform voters Labour is trying to win over, although they don’t support aid, it is not a very salient issue for them.
It’s unclear that aid is a salient issue for Reform voters
In fact, it is way down the list. They have much bigger priorities. They care primarily about the government getting immigration under control – not about how many decimal points we spend on aid.
In a recent focus group that More in Common carried out with Labour-Reform voters in target constituencies, voters who backed Labour in 2024 but are now intending to vote Reform spoke to their concerns about aid spending particularly on asylum hotel costs.
READ MORE: Runcorn blame game begins – why did Labour lose?
Even this group of more aid sceptical voters could see where aid was in Britain’s national interest. As Ashington-based painter decorator (and Labour-Reform switcher) Scott said, foreign aid would “help us influence our position as a global leader” and “if you spend a little money now to help them fix a problem they’ve got, that could potentially save from costing us further down the line”.
Meanwhile for many Labour, Green, Lib Dem and SNP voters, aid is a much more salient issue. As we saw in Thursday’s local elections, for some it is the issue. This is certainly our experience on the doorstep as we’ve been out supporting candidates connected to the Labour Campaign for International Development.
We know many parts of the aid programme are popular
There are many parts of the UK’s aid programmes that are highly popular with these voters. For example, More in Common’s polling shows significant support for the UK’s role in vaccinating children from deadly diseases like Ebola, malaria and rabies through the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation (GAVI), with 74% of Labour voters, 79% of Green voters and 86% of Lib Dem voters saying this should not be cut.
In those seats where Labour has a small lead – with SNP, Greens, and independents snapping at our heels – the impact of these cuts could be a godsend for our opponents in the run-up to the next elections.
READ MORE: ‘Results so far say one thing: voters think change isn’t coming fast enough’
As Anneliese Dodds’ resignation letter said, it will be “impossible to maintain priorities” of continuing support to Gaza, Sudan and Ukraine, all of which have significant public support. Individual cuts over the next two years are therefore likely to be deeply unpopular with many of the voters we need to win in the next general election.
The government has indicated that the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office will no longer have the Official Development Assistance ‘spender and saver of last resort’ role.
Almost a third of aid budget currently spent in-country
This means that savings on asylum hotel spending – which currently comes out of the aid budget – may no longer flow back into the FCDO in the future.
Currently, 28% of our aid budget is not spent overseas but on UK in-country refugee costs – the vast majority being on hotel costs for asylum seekers. This is a terrible waste of taxpayers’ money that is bad for asylum seekers, bad for locations with hotels, bad for the economy and a terrible use of our aid budget.
READ MORE: ‘‘Labour has lost in Runcorn – here are the eight things the party should do now‘
This move is a further stealth cut to our aid budget that marks a significant shift in the government’s position.
The Chancellor herself said just 6 months ago in the Autumn Statement that “The government is committed to ensuring that asylum costs fall, has taken measures to reduce the asylum backlog and is ending the use of expensive hotel accommodation.
These plans should create more space in the ODA budget to spend on our international development priorities overseas”.
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It is vital that the government reconsiders this position, and ensures that any costs recovered from asylum hotel costs going down can go back into the already depleted aid budget.
Yesterday’s results in Cambridge should be a warning to all of us who want this Labour Government to succeed. At a time of geopolitical upheaval, unless the UK stands tall and projects its values in all corners of the world, there is a very real risk that we suffer even more fatally in the general election.
As Hannah Rich at Christians of the Left says, we are going to need to start winning hearts and minds if we are to be successful. We believe a bold, outward-looking Labour government can lead Britain into a new era of global leadership and solidarity. To do this we must go into this clear-eyed about the fact that cutting aid is not the vote winner some in Westminster may think it is.
Read more on the 2025 local elections:
Results on the day
- Council by council results: Labour gains and losses – and its position in each mayor race
- Joint worst projected national vote share projected in over four decades
- Lancashire: Defeated Labour leader hits out as two dozen seats lost
- Cambridgeshire and Peterborough: Results breakdown as Labour loses to Tories
- County Durham: Labour annihilated on once-red mining heartland
- Runcorn defeat: Results breakdown, analysis and reaction to knife-edge loss
- West of England mayor: Results unpacked as Labour edges Reform and Greens
- Doncaster mayor: Labour holds off Reform by 700 votes
- Northumberland results breakdown as Labour ends third in council it once ran
- Labour North Tyneside mayor holds on but vote halves as Reform come close
Analysis of the 2025 election results
- Starmer: ‘Labour must go further and faster to deliver after Runcorn defeat’
- Runcorn blame game begins – why did Labour lose?
- ‘Labour has lost in Runcorn – here are the eight things the party should do now‘
- MPs who could lose their seat on Runcorn by-election swing to Reform
- ‘Results so far say one thing: voters think change isn’t coming fast enough’
- Three ways to measure Labour’s success tonight
- ‘Uxbridgitis: If election results are grim, let’s not learn the wrong lessons again’
- Where’s Keir? PM barely features in Labour party election broadcasts for the locals
- The meme elections: Labour’s social media pivot to take fight to Farage
LabourList’s on-the-ground reports from the campaign
- Hull and East Yorkshire: Labour candidate spars with Reform’s boxing star in UK’s most disillusioned city
- Cambridgeshire & Peterborough Nik Johnson on why he’s standing down and Anna Smith on knife-edge Labour-Tory fight to replace him
- West of England: Tory and Green threats, Dan Norris and low voter awareness
- Lancashire: Long shadow of Gaza looms over key battleground
Inside the Runcorn campaign
- Mood on the doorstep: Labour’s last push for Tory voters to keep out Reform
- At least 150 Labour MPs visit – but Keir Starmer ain’t one
- Karen Shore interview: Labour candidate on Reform, the NHS and closing asylum hotels
- Runcorn poll: One in ten Labour voters expected to back Reform
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