Local election results: Worst vote share projected in over four decades

Expert analysis of the local election results declared so far suggests Labour will slump to just 20% of the vote, its worst vote share in at least four decades and the worst ever Tory local election results.

While ballots are still being counted, the BBC’s projected national vote share currently predicts a sharp Labour decline, from 34% of the vote at the general election and 29% the last time many of these seats were contested in 2021.

A 20% vote share would be the same result as in 2009, a nadir after 12 years of New Labour government. That would be the joint worst vote share since at least 1982, as far back as immediately available records go.

Sky News later projected Labour would fare even worse, on 19%.

Minister Sarah Jones told the BBC “voters were always right…and we always have to listen”, but added that we’ve been in “similar situations before”, citing the rise and fall of the SDP in the 1980s. “These are in the main elections in Conservative-held areas where we weren’t expecting to make gains.”

READ MORE: Council by council Labour gains and losses – and its position in each mayor race

READ MORE: ‘Results so far say one thing: voters think change isn’t coming fast enough’

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Reform are projected to win 30% of the vote, with Labour second, the Lib Dems on 17%, Tories on 15% and Greens on 11%. Expert Sir John Curtice said it could be the Tories’ worst ever result.

The night so far has seen Labour lose both the Runcorn and Helsby by-election by a whisker and the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough mayoralty, whilst suffering double-digit seat losses in once Labour-controlled County Durham, Lancashire and Northumberland.

Labour managed to hold on to the West of England, Doncaster and North Tyneside mayoralties, but only by fine margins as Reform advanced.

Nationally as of mid-afternoon Friday,  Reform won seven of the first 11 councils declared and had almost 500 councillors with the Lib Dems gaining more than 200 and the Greens gaining dozens. Labour was down more than 100, and the Tories down by more than 400.

READ MORE: Runcorn blame game begins – why did Labour lose?

The blame game is well underway after the closest by-election in history in Runcorn, which went to a recount and saw Reform’s swing exceeding national polls – likely sparking angst among many MPs who might lose on a similar swing. Survation warned it made up to 100 constituencies now Reform targets, Keir Starmer said Labour must go “further and faster” on current policy, while others say the cost of living is key. Some warn against mimicking Reform, however.

In Labour’s historic mining heartland County Durham, where it had governed for a century until 2021, won every constituency last year and was just yesterday the largest party, the party shed a staggering 38 seats to finish fourth as Reform took control with 65 councillors.

In Lancashire, Labour-run in the New Labour era, Labour’s leader slammed spending cuts after he and 26 colleagues lost seats as Reform took control, with the Tories also losing 39 seats.

In Northumberland, where Labour was the largest party in the 2000s, the party lost a dozen seats  finishing a distant third behind Reform and the Tories, who narrowly remain the biggest party.

READ MORE: ‘‘Labour has lost in Runcorn – here are the eight things the party should do now‘

But the first three major sets of results fully declared had all seen Labour edge tight victories to hold on, with Reform finishing second in three mayoralties.

In Doncaster, Labour’s Ros Jones was re-elected for a fourth time, but only by around 700 votes to Reform.

In North Tyneside, Karen Clark held it for Labour but with only 32.4% of the vote to Reform’s  29.4%. Labour’s vote tally more than halved, however, from 33,119 for Clark’s outgoing predecessor in 2021 to just 16,230 this time round.

In the West of England, Labour’s Helen Godwin secured a majority of less than 6,000 votes over Arron Banks, with 25% of the vote to Reform’s 22.1%, It marked an unusual four-way contest, with the Greens third on 20% and Tories on 16.6%.

Read more on the 2025 local elections:

Results on the day

Analysis of the 2025 election results

• Starmer: ‘Labour must go further and faster to deliver after Runcorn defeat’
• Runcorn blame game begins – why did Labour lose?
• ‘Labour has lost in Runcorn – here are the eight things the party should do now‘
• MPs who could lose their seat on Runcorn by-election swing to Reform
• ‘Results so far say one thing: voters think change isn’t coming fast enough’
• Three ways to measure Labour’s success tonight
• ‘Uxbridgitis: If election results are grim, let’s not learn the wrong lessons again’
• Where’s Keir? PM barely features in Labour party election broadcasts for the locals
• The meme elections: Labour’s social media pivot to take fight to Farage

LabourList’s on-the-ground reports from the campaign

• Hull and East Yorkshire: Labour candidate spars with Reform’s boxing star in UK’s most disillusioned city
• Cambridgeshire & Peterborough Nik Johnson on why he’s standing down and Anna Smith on knife-edge Labour-Tory fight to replace him
• West of England: Tory and Green threats, Dan Norris and low voter awareness
• Lancashire: Long shadow of Gaza looms over key battleground

Inside the Runcorn campaign

• Mood on the doorstep: Labour’s last push for Tory voters to keep out Reform
• At least 150 Labour MPs visit – but Keir Starmer ain’t one
• Karen Shore interview: Labour candidate on Reform, the NHS and closing asylum hotels
• Runcorn poll: One in ten Labour voters expected to back Reform

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